Hershey ZooAmerica

Today Nathan, Aric and I went to visit the Zoo here. It was founded by Milton Hershey and is celebrating it's 100th anniversary. All of the animals are native to North America which was interesting to us. We practically had the zoo to ourselves which meant we spent as long as we wanted at each exhibit.



We are even more fond of these majestic creatures after our time with them in Michigan.

We are less fond of these animals after our time in Ohio at a park where they covered our patio with their gifts each day.

This guy is about the same size as the bear that Nathan got up close and person with in TN. I wish the bear we saw in the wild seemed as zen as this one. I might have been a hair less nervous then.

These two fought the entire time, and I'm pretty sure they were males based on how they fought.

This most likely was the female, because as soon as she saw they were fighting she came over to check it out. In fact, I think she is Mom because she has that look on her face like, "I can't leave you two alone for five seconds!"

This beautiful animal was checking out a bunny rabbit that was running free, so he couldn't be bothered with us at all.

And this is the beautiful creature I wanted to bring home with me:

Living the life in Pennsylvania!

No climbing today. Wedding only.

The wedding of Craig and Lotus.

This post is more for my own memory than anything else. Aknowledgements will be imcomplete. But thank you to all the special people who cast this spell.

Sandra and I talked the next morning about how we had all worked on so many details for so many months to make a majic moment. The majic doesn't last forever, but it leaves something special behind.

How to cast a spell: Prepare the space.




Aunty Lorelle showers the ground with rose petals.





Fill the air with the sacred ritual music of the Gamelan.







Bring together the beautiful bride and the nervous, terrifiedbut happy groom.





Perform the ceremony





Bring together fabulous guests from around the world.





Easy!





Now Jools from Panic Hair Bazaar performs her special girls majic.













I was quite busy for the day but I did get to take a few photos. You know, can't trust the professionals and all that.






































Mother and Daughter



Lotus and her Grandmother, Molly phoenix.











I can't take my eyes of this girl!

































Kirsten and Willow












The very fabulous wine from Mike Olsen of Cypress post.








The banquet team.









127 guests, plus the Gamelan and the band, Astrid and the Asteroids.
















The kids have thier own party.







It's a bake off. Sandra made cheesecake, Martha made tarts.



Can you believe this cake?



Willow, the Maid of Honor.



Dear friends.








I was there too.



The ruck.















The lovely guests.










































The perfect spell.

Kicking Back, Old School Style

When I wrote about the modern Sturmey Archer Duomatic hub last week, a reader pointed out that vintage coaster brake hubs have"more 'backlash' - so you have to rotate the pedals further before engaging the brake." I had noticed this as well after switching back and forth between bikes with modern coaster brake hubs (SAand Shimano) and vintage ones (SAand Sachs).

My preference is for the older style. The position my legs tend to be in when braking with the older hubs feels more comfortable. And it is also more convenient to start from a stop: It is easier to arrange the pedals in the correct position when there is more "give" before the coaster brake is engaged.

I am sure there is a good reason why current coaster brake hubs are made so that they are quicker to engage. Anybody know what they are, and the history behind the change?

Aric and John in the Tournament

Aric played with John. We just met John last night. Aric left before John got to the courts last night. Which means today was the first they'd ever played together.

They did very well together.

I think they had incredible teamwork together. Especially since it was their first time playing together.

The ended up in the championship game and they won their bracket! Woohoo! WTG, Aric!

Cycling and Statistics

As someone with a background in the social and natural sciences, I was "raised" on statistics by the academic system. If we compare academia to religion, then making claims without statistical evidence is akin to taking the Lord's name in vain. But even beyond academia, we have an inherent faith in statistics as a culture. We respect numbers and charts, and we turn to them for comfort at times of uncertainty. Consider, for instance, this beautiful bar graph:



Now, some of us may have suspected that diamond frames tend to be ridden by men, whereas step-throughs and mixtes tend to be ridden by women, but only numbers and graphs have the power to lift us from the murky waters of speculation. We can now say that, in a recent poll conducted by Lovely Bicycle, of the 221 respondents who claimed to ride mainly diamond frame bikes for transportation, 76% were male. Of the 95 respondents who claimed to ride mainly step-through bikes for transportation, 80% were female. And of the 39 respondents who claimed to ride mainly mixte bikes for transportation, 66% were female. This numerical evidence we can wield like a mighty weapon the next time someone contradicts these tendencies.



Of course the one little problem with Statistics, is that it's mostly BS. In the words of comedian Vic Reeves, "88.2% of Statistics are made up on the spot" - which may very well be the case. But numbers need not be maliciously forged in order to misrepresent reality. There are multitudes of ways in which a study can be flawed or biased from the start, set up so as to elicit particular responses. Often this is done unintentionally, or at least unconsciously, by researchers eager to find evidence for their pet theories. Other scenarios can include how data is processed, or even how the final results are presented. Statistics are highly prone to human error and bias, which means that they are inherently subjective. This, combined with the fact that we respect them so much, makes our statistics-loving culture susceptible to misinformation.



[image via NHTSA]

The idea of statistics and misinformation brings me to what I really wanted to talk about here, and this is something I've been trying to make sense of for a while. I am puzzled by the use of safety statistics in bicycle advocacy, and I am hoping that someone could explain them to me. For example, many bicycle advocacy talks and internet presentations stress that it is safer to ride a bike than it is to travel in a car. In support of this, they use statistics such as this data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), according to which there were about 30,000 motor vehicle traffic fatalities, and about 600 bicycle fatalities in the USA in . These numbers are used by cycling advocates to point out how much safer it is to cycle than to drive. But unless I am missing something, the figures mean just the opposite.



Yes, the NHTSA numbers suggest that in there were 50 times more motor vehicle fatalities than there were bicycle fatalities in the US. But those numbers mean nothing until they are weighed against how many cars vs bicycles there are on the roads at large. If there were 50 times more cars on the road than bicycles, than the risks of fatal traffic accident would be equal for each mode of transportation. But I believe that in actuality, there are more like 1,000 more cars on the roads than bicycles... which means that the number of cycling fatalities is disproportionately high.



Obviously, I am not trying to prove that cycling is unsafe. ButI do want to understand the reality of the situation. After all, if cycling advocates use statistics incorrectly, they open themselves up to some very harsh critique from unfriendly forces. Where could one go to obtain accurate statistics about the number of cars vs bicycles on the roads, and the number of traffic accidents for each?